On January 17, the Denver Broncos will play their first AFC divisional round against the Buffalo Bills. Odds are on a Broncos win, as for the ninth time in franchise history, the Broncos go into the AFC playoffs as the number one seed after a dominating record of 14-3 this season.
This historic run was fueled by second-year quarterback Bo Nix, who has now joined an elite group of Broncos leaders. He finished the season with 3,931 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. Nix is now the fourth quarterback in franchise history to lead the Broncos to a top seed, following in the footsteps of legends John Elway, Peyton Manning, and Craig Morton.
In six of the eight previous seasons where Denver earned the top seed, they advanced to the Super Bowl. With Sean Payton at the helm, this team looks prepared to go deep into the playoffs. Payton told the Denver Post, “We feel like we have some guys that can go down and get it. We’ll be aggressive in how we call these guys.”
How Seeding Works
For those that don’t really follow sports, “seeding” is another word for ranking, and the top seed in a division is the top-ranked team that season. Seeding in the NFL is based entirely on each team’s win-loss record for the season against those of their division and determines not just who gets to the playoffs but who plays whom.
First, the best teams in each division (North, South, East, and West) are ranked as seeds 1 through 4. This year, both the Broncos of the AFC West and the New England Patriots of the AFC East had a 14-3 season record. While the NFL usually breaks the tie by seeing which team won in a regular season head-to-head, the Broncos didn’t play the Patriots in the regular season this year.
Instead, the NFL looked at how both the Broncos and Patriots did against teams they both played, and while both the Broncos and Patriots won their games against the Giants, Jets, and Bengals, only the Broncos beat the Las Vegas Raiders, so they clinched the top spot. The 13-4 Jaguars of the AFC South earned the no. 3 seed, and the 10-7 Steelers of the AFC North got the no. 4 seed.
For “wild card” seeds no. 5, 6, and 7, the NFL then looks at the second-best teams of each division: this year, those were the Los Angeles Chargers (West, 11-6), Buffalo Bills (East, 12-5), Houston Texans (South, 12-5), and Baltimore Ravens (North, 8-9). With the worst record, the Ravens didn’t make the playoffs, and since the Texans won against the Bills in the regular season, they nabbed the no. 5 seed. Even though the no. 5, 6, and 7 seeds all had a better record than the no. 4 seed (Pittsburgh), they cannot be in the top four because they didn’t win their division.
Top Seed Advantage
NFL playoff matchups are all determined by seeding. Since 2020, the first “wild card” round sees the no. 2 seed host the no. 7 seed, no. 3 host no. 6, and no. 4 host no. 5; meanwhile, the no. 1 seed gets a bye week. This means that while every other AFC playoff team hit the gridiron last week, the Broncos got extra time to rest up and recover before the playoffs.
During the next “divisional” round, the no. 1 seed hosts the lowest-remaining seed—since the no. 2 (Patriots), no. 5 (Texans), and no. 6 (Bills) seeds won their wild card games, the Broncos will face off against the Bills while the Patriots and Texans will play each other. The higher seed always gets home-field advantage, so both the Broncos and Patriots are hosting this week.
If the Broncos win against the Bills, they will also automatically host the AFC Championship game next week because no seed is higher than no. 1. If they lose, then either the Patriots or Texans will host the Bills, as both teams are a higher seed.
While a bye week and home field may not seem like big advantages, the odds are in the Broncos’ favor. From 1975 to 2019, the no. 1 seed not only reached the Super Bowl but also won it 53.1% of the time. The no. 2 seed, by contrast, only won the Super Bowl 20.4% of the time—and that was still when the no. 2 seed also got a bye week in the playoffs. Since the 2020 shift to a 14-team playoff, not a single no. 2 seed has appeared at the Super Bowl, while the no. 1 seed reaches the Super Bowl 50% of the time.
Can Denver Go the Distance?
The Broncos in particular have had a strong history when it comes to playoffs. In the 60 years of the NFL franchise, the Broncos have made it to the playoffs 24 times and have been the no. 1 seed 9 times, the second-most times of any franchise. The Broncos have made eight appearances at the Super Bowl, with six of them (and two of their three wins) coming after they held the no. 1 seed.
However, clinching the top seed isn’t a sure sign that a Lombardi trophy is coming. While half of the no. 1 seeds under the 14-team playoff structure have made it to the Super Bowl, the no. 1 seed has only won once. The odds are even worse when considering that both the AFC and NFC have a no. 1 seed, and both no. 1 seeds have only made it to the Super Bowl 20% of the time.
Still, the Broncos are arguably the best team in the league this year. The defining moments of the year came in Week 7 in a matchup against the New York Giants, a game coined the “Mile High Meltdown.” The Broncos entered the fourth quarter scoreless, trailing 19-0. In a stunning turn of events, Denver exploded for 33 points in a single quarter, on a game-winning 39-yard field goal by Wil Lutz. That afternoon didn’t just add to the record; it sickened the hesitating fans and proved this team is a legitimate contender.
Success in the NFL is driven by elite talent, and Denver has many. The team has six pro bowlers this year, tying the most in the entire league. From Nik Bonitto’s 14 sacks to Pat Surtain II’s fourth Pro Bowl selection, this defense has been historic! The recognition doesn’t stop there; Garrett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz on the offensive line, along with defensive tackle Zach Allen, have proven that Denver is a powerhouse in the trenches. With this roster, the Broncos aren’t just playoff-bound; they are the team to beat! (Denver Broncos).
Though the Broncos have much to celebrate, their greatest challenge lies ahead: a hihigh-stakes divisional Round rematch against the Buffalo Bills. This Saturday, the Bills will arrive in Denver looking to repeat history; last year, the Bills stomped through Denver 31-7 in a Wild Card defeat. However, this year the Broncos are prepared!
This game features a clash of the Bills’ high-stakes offense and the Broncos’ unstabable defense led by Nik Bonitto. Buffalo is led by Josh Allen, the 2024-2025 MVP and dual-threat quarterback known for his ability to pass deep and run to extend the play. He will be facing a Denver pass rush that leads the NFL in sacks and a tough secondary, notably called the “no-fly zone.”
For the Broncos, this isn’t just a playoff game—it’s a chance to repeat history and prove that a Super Bowl belongs in Mile High.
